Analysis for Tuesday, August 25th

After market close:
Although today was essentially a doji the close was up from yesterday pretty much across the board.  Volume was a little lower though so although the fight did not move much of anything people might be starting to wait for a stronger indication before pushing in either direction.  I don’t like that because then we’re more subject to news and I don’t like paying attention to the news.
Yesterday I believe that I stated the Q’s have more room to climb and they do.  But there is a second upward trending resistance line that it’s tracking against right in step with the upper trend lines that the rest of the indices seem to be sticking to.  So… everyone has, at least for today stuck to this upward trending line  that is currently acting as resistance.  Joy.  For the moment I think we’re going to keep following it too.  The only real problem I see here is that this could be viewed as the top of the range for the DJI and SPY.  Albeit as a shorter term trend line.  The longer term for SPY has a much more defined area to climb within and in looser terms its the same story for the DJI.
Despite all this, I feel like the markets still want to move up.  Subjective, yes, but my impression is that the longer term trend is stronger and we aren’t at the top of the range.    Saying that seems to imply that we’re due to pop.   But given the volume today, I don’t think we’re ready yet.  I would expect to see it either level off or drop more significantly first.
One last thing: Although the volume was down a bit, it was, still, essentially average.  Yet, looking at the intraday trading the markets were all over the place.  There was quite a lot of push and pull, just in a small range and to get not much of anywhere.
Expectation for Wednesday, August 26th: slightly bullish bias; SPY +0.3

After market close:

Although today was essentially a doji the close was up from yesterday pretty much across the board.  Volume was a little lower though so although the fight did not move much of anything people might be starting to wait for a stronger indication before pushing in either direction.  I don’t like that because then we’re more subject to news and I don’t like paying attention to the news.

Yesterday I believe that I stated the Q’s have more room to climb and they do.  But there is a second upward trending resistance line that it’s tracking against right in step with the upper trend lines that the rest of the indices seem to be sticking to.  So… everyone has, at least for today stuck to this upward trending line  that is currently acting as resistance.  Joy.  For the moment I think we’re going to keep following it too.  The only real problem I see here is that this could be viewed as the top of the range for the DJI and SPY.  Albeit as a shorter term trend line.  The longer term for SPY has a much more defined area to climb within and in looser terms its the same story for the DJI.

Despite all this, I feel like the markets still want to move up.  Subjective, yes, but my impression is that the longer term trend is stronger and we aren’t at the top of the range.    Saying that seems to imply that we’re due to pop.   But given the volume today, I don’t think we’re ready yet.  I would expect to see it either level off or drop more significantly first.

One last thing: Although the volume was down a bit, it was, still, essentially average.  Yet, looking at the intraday trading the markets were all over the place.  There was quite a lot of push and pull, just in a small range and to get not much of anywhere.

Expectation for Wednesday, August 26th: slightly bullish bias; SPY +0.3

Analysis for Monday, August 24th

Monday August 24th, after market close: After a near 3 white knights pattern the market tried to move up but didn’t have enough push to close above its open.  It did however close above the previous day’s close.  This was done with average volume while the previous day’s upward move was slightly above average volume.  From the graphs and the volume there isn’t a clear direction to move in either direction.  There was hesitation today for going up and there has already been a solid move to the up side, so we could roll.  However, people seem to be happy and positive lately and the latest move just puts us at the top of a channel, which have acted like glue lately so we might hangout up there for a bit.  I’m slightly bullish just because the market feels happy lately.  That is, it feels like it wants to go up, or at least maintain its upward moves for longer periods.  It might also pop from here to the upside since it’s sitting on an upward trend line.
Edit: looking at the Q’s there is clearly room for an additional move up before hitting much (or any) resistance.  So, unless the Qs roll for some reason outside of its chart, it’ll probably be up tomorrow.

After market close:

After a near 3 white knights pattern the market tried to move up but didn’t have enough push to close above its open.  It did however close above the previous day’s close.  This was done with average volume while the previous day’s upward move was slightly above average volume.

From the graphs and the volume there isn’t a clear direction to move in either direction.  There was hesitation today for going up and there has already been a solid move to the up side, so we could roll.

However, people seem to be happy and positive lately and the latest move just puts us at the top of a channel, which have acted like glue lately so we might hangout up there for a bit.  Mainly though, I’m slightly bullish just because the market feels happy lately.  That is, it feels like it wants to go up, or at least maintain its upward moves for longer periods.

It might also pop from here to the upside since it’s sitting on an upward trend line. Looking at the Q’s there is clearly room for an additional move up before hitting much (or any) resistance.  So, unless the Q’s roll for some reason outside of its chart, it’ll probably be up tomorrow.

Expectation for Tuesday, August 25th: slightly bullish bias; SPY +1.2  (edit: actual +0.2, 0.19%)

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